With government spending commitments and defence expenditure placing further pressure on the public finances, the new Chancellor, John Healey, faces a significant challenge when he delivers his first Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026.
The precise scale of the challenge remains uncertain. Estimates of the Chancellor’s available fiscal headroom have fallen substantially in recent months, while higher government borrowing costs and wider economic pressures have added to speculation that Healey may need to find additional revenue.
The Chancellor has already indicated that “fiscal discipline” will form a central part of the upcoming Budget.
While any commentary about where the Treasury might find additional revenue remains speculation until the Chancellor delivers his statement, economists and tax experts have identified several areas that could potentially come under scrutiny.
For savers and investors, Capital Gains Tax, ISAs and intergenerational wealth are three areas worth watching particularly closely.
Wealth taxes: could Capital Gains Tax rise again?
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) has become one of the major talking points ahead of the Budget.
The current main CGT rates are 18% for gains falling within an individual’s basic-rate band and 24% thereafter, while the annual CGT exempt amount currently stands at just £3,000.
One proposal attracting attention is the possibility of bringing CGT rates closer to Income Tax rates.
This is not confirmed government policy. However, aligning the taxation of capital gains and income has been discussed by economists, think tanks and tax commentators and has consequently entered the debate surrounding the Autumn Budget.
If CGT were simply aligned with the current Income Tax rates in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the headline rates could theoretically change as follows:
| Income Tax Band | Current CGT Rate | Equivalent Income Tax Rate | Increase in Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basic Rate | 18% | 20% | 11.1% |
| Higher Rate | 24% | 40% | 66.7% |
| Additional Rate | 24% | 45% | 87.5% |
For higher and additional-rate taxpayers in particular, such an alignment would represent a substantial increase in the rate applied to taxable capital gains.
CGT currently raises around £14 billion a year, with receipts already forecast to increase considerably under existing policy. Analysis cited ahead of the Budget has suggested that aligning CGT more closely with Income Tax could potentially raise as much as £20 billion annually, although the actual amount raised would depend heavily on how investors responded to higher rates.
That behavioural element is important: increasing a tax rate does not necessarily produce a proportionate increase in receipts if asset owners delay disposals or change how their wealth is structured.
What could this mean for gold owners?
Any discussion surrounding CGT is particularly relevant when considering the way physical gold is owned.
Most assets capable of generating a capital gain can potentially create a CGT liability when sold. However, certain UK legal-tender coins, including qualifying gold Britannias and Sovereigns, are exempt from Capital Gains Tax for UK residents.
Gold bars and many internationally issued gold coins do not benefit from the same exemption.
This distinction already exists under current legislation and does not depend upon the outcome of the Autumn Budget.
Should CGT rates eventually rise, however, understanding the tax treatment of different assets, and different forms of the same asset, could become increasingly important for individuals building and preserving wealth.
ISAs and the future of tax-efficient saving
Another area to watch closely is the future of the Individual Savings Account (ISA).
ISAs have long been one of the principal ways in which UK savers can protect returns from Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax. The overall annual ISA allowance currently stands at £20,000 per adult, meaning a couple could potentially shelter £40,000 each tax year between them.
The scale of wealth held within ISAs is significant. HMRC statistics show that UK adults collectively hold hundreds of billions of pounds within ISA accounts, making even relatively modest changes to the system potentially significant for millions of savers.
Attention has increasingly focused on the balance between Cash ISAs and investment-based ISAs.
The Government has been exploring ways of encouraging more UK savers to move money from cash deposits into productive investments, with policymakers arguing that a greater proportion of household savings could potentially be directed towards UK businesses and capital markets.
That has led to considerable discussion around the future of the Cash ISA allowance and whether the amount that can be sheltered in cash should be reduced while retaining the broader £20,000 ISA framework.
Any further ISA reforms announced in the Autumn Budget would therefore be particularly relevant to people holding substantial cash savings.
ISAs, CGT and physical gold
There is an important distinction between an ISA and the tax treatment of physical gold.
Physical gold bullion cannot simply be placed inside an ISA in the same way as cash, shares or eligible investment funds.
However, certain UK legal-tender gold coins have their own tax characteristic: qualifying coins such as Britannias and Sovereigns are exempt from Capital Gains Tax.
Crucially, that CGT treatment is not dependent on using an ISA allowance.
For example, an individual might use their £20,000 annual ISA allowance for cash or eligible investments while separately owning qualifying UK legal-tender gold coins. Subject to the applicable rules, gains on those qualifying coins remain exempt from CGT without consuming any of the individual’s ISA allowance.
That does not make gold an alternative or equivalent to an ISA. They are fundamentally different assets and structures, carrying different risks and characteristics.
But at a time when both CGT and the future of tax-efficient savings allowances are under discussion, understanding the different ways in which assets are taxed could become increasingly important.
Inheritance Tax and intergenerational wealth
Inheritance Tax (IHT) is another area attracting attention ahead of 28 October.
Previously announced reforms are already due to change the treatment of inherited wealth from April 2027, including changes affecting pensions and estates.
Against that backdrop, economists and tax commentators will be watching closely to see whether the Chancellor announces any further reforms to the way wealth is transferred between generations.
There has also been speculation around more fundamental changes to the existing inheritance-tax system, including proposals for alternative approaches to taxing estates or inherited wealth.
Again, these remain proposals and speculation rather than confirmed government policy.
For families thinking about passing wealth from one generation to the next, however, the direction of travel makes understanding existing tax rules increasingly important.
Physical gold is not exempt from Inheritance Tax, including gold coins that qualify for CGT exemption. The two taxes should therefore not be confused.
Nevertheless, gold is frequently purchased as a long-term store of wealth and, for some buyers, with the intention of eventually passing tangible assets to children or grandchildren.
Any significant changes to inheritance taxation could therefore be particularly relevant to those considering how their wealth is structured over the long term.
What should investors watch on 28 October?
Until the Chancellor delivers the Autumn Budget, predictions about individual tax measures should be treated with caution.
The Government has not confirmed an increase in Capital Gains Tax, a new wealth tax or further changes to Inheritance Tax.
However, with pressure on the public finances and the Chancellor pledging to maintain fiscal discipline, the taxation of assets, savings and wealth is likely to remain an important part of the debate surrounding the Budget.
For savers and investors, there are therefore three particularly important areas to watch:
Capital Gains Tax: Will the Chancellor make any further changes to rates, allowances or the taxation of capital gains?
ISAs: Will the Government make further changes to Cash ISAs or the way the £20,000 annual allowance can be used?
Inheritance Tax: Will further measures be announced affecting estates and the transfer of wealth between generations?
For physical-gold buyers, the weeks ahead also provide an opportunity to understand the existing tax treatment of different forms of gold, including the distinction between gold bars, internationally issued coins and CGT-exempt UK legal-tender coins such as qualifying Britannias and Sovereigns.
Whatever happens on 28 October, understanding how different assets are taxed remains an important part of making informed decisions about preserving and passing on wealth.
Solomon Global will be following the Autumn Budget closely and providing further analysis of any confirmed changes that could affect UK gold owners.
Read our latest insights for further coverage of the Autumn Budget and what confirmed changes could mean for physical-gold buyers.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. References to potential Budget measures are based on public commentary and speculation and should not be interpreted as confirmed government policy. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may change in the future. The value of gold can fall as well as rise.
